This describes what public data says, together with each source's track record. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, nor financial advice. Investing can lose you money.
Zurich Insurance Group AG
ZURN.SW
That trajectory is not the distance to the price target: it blends these sources, each weighted by how often it is right on this stock.
earnings estimates
+13.8%
(is right 71%
over a sample of 19 cases;
it is the only source, so it carries the whole move)
.
Provider's reference target (it does NOT feed the move above, which comes from another source): 609.76 (12
analysts, captured on
2026-09-09).
Below is the consensus RECONSTRUCTED from movements you can check one by one; they are two different figures and need not agree.
None of the opinions listed below is still current, so this aggregate cannot be reconciled with them.
Expected return +14% (~12m) with 50% confidence, low volatility · solid fundamentals (grade B), CH leading indicator slowing (CLI 97.4, -1.9/6m) — weak growth ahead, US 10y rate elevated (99p): tailwind for the sector (with reversal risk), technical timing D1: confluence 0.0 (percentile 25) → -2.0, risk-on market — affects position size, not the ranking, out-of-sample post-mortem +3.7% (526 cases).
How much can you trust each source on ZURN.CH?
Not every source is equally accurate, and none is equally accurate on every stock. This is how often each one GOT IT RIGHT, measured against what actually happened afterwards. The line marks 50%, and it is only a visual reference. For these four sources we have not measured how often chance alone would get it right, and for some of them —such as targets reached— it would not be 50%. Where it is measured is in the technical signals further down, which carry their base rate alongside.
How much it moves
The price trades BELOW the target: punished against its anchor of value, with a possible upward correction.
The environment · is working against it
No stock moves alone. This is what is happening around ZURN.CH and how much it weighs: the environment subtracts 3.0 points out of the 7 it can move.
Is there fear in the market?
How is the US economy doing?
In Switzerland: leading indicator for Switzerland decelerating (CLI 97.4, -1.9/6m) — weak growth ahead.
What is pulling and what is dragging?
How much each thing this company depends on has moved in recent months.
A note on “its country”: ZURN.CH is listed where it is listed, but keeps its books in USD, which is not that exchange's currency. Its business is, at least partly, outside where it is listed: the cycle and inflation above are those of the country on record as its own, and that need not be where it actually earns.
Interest rates (US 10-year Treasury, not its own country's): this stock tends to suffer when rates rise (correlation -0.08), and right now they are stable.
Earnings
See the 12 previous reports
| Date | Expected | Reported | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-09 | 6.35 | 7.74 | +21.8% | beat |
| 2022-08-11 | 8.55 | 5.18 | -39.4% | missed |
| 2022-03-15 | 6.35 | 7.92 | +24.7% | beat |
| 2022-02-10 | 4.48 | 6.69 | +49.5% | beat |
| 2021-08-12 | 4.04 | 2.82 | -30.1% | missed |
| 2021-04-24 | 4.48 | 6.64 | +48.3% | beat |
| 2021-02-11 | 7.23 | 5.34 | -26.1% | missed |
| 2020-08-15 | 4.04 | 2.78 | -31.1% | missed |
| 2020-02-13 | 4.51 | 5.87 | +30.2% | beat |
| 2019-08-09 | 5.81 | 5.02 | -13.6% | missed |
| 2019-02-07 | 4.45 | 4.68 | +5.1% | beat |
| 2018-08-11 | 6.41 | 5.14 | -19.8% | missed |
Technical signals that work best here
Each signal has been measured on this specific stock: how often, after it fired, the price moved as expected. The grey bar is what would have happened without the signal.They are ordered by EDGE - the hit rate divided by the base rate - not by the hit rate alone: a signal right 60% of the time where the norm is 40% adds more than one right 70% of the time where the norm was already 68%. When the rounded edge ties, the unrounded figure decides.
An edge of a few points over the base is real but small, and it is measured on the past: it guarantees nothing. Look at how many times it happened too - a high percentage over 30 cases says far less than a modest one over 500.
The last twelve months
The dots mark when the triggers measured for this stock fired (RSI oversold, Stochastic oversold, Williams %R oversold): 59 times in the year (twelve are drawn, spread out, so you can see where they cluster). They anticipate a move over FIVE days, not a year: this is not a buy signal nor a forecast of what the price will do over twelve months.
See the 7 signals one by one
Of these 7 signals, 1 has its hit rate MEASURED on this stock; the rest carry a reference value that is the same for every company, which is the best that can be said without a history of its own. The «Right» column tells them apart.
Below 8 cases it does not count as measured and the signal carries no weight: 100% out of three and 0% out of three are the same noise. Between that minimum and 25 cases the weight phases in gradually, not all at once.
| Signal | Says | Accuracy | How it is used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals | up | 56% → 52.0% adjusted measured here · 38 |
It counts |
| Analysts (earnings) | up | 60% reference |
It counts |
| Analysts (revenue) | up | 57% reference |
It counts |
| Macro environment | up | 52% reference |
It counts |
| EPS revisions | flat | 58% reference |
Adds nothing: its edge is too small to move the result |
| Relative strength | down | 56% reference |
It counts |
| Institutional (flow) | up | 60% reference |
It counts |
Fundamental analysis in detail — debt, margins, earnings
Profile against its peers
Each pillar is a percentile within its peer group (same sector and country): 70 means it beats 70% of its comparables. It measures the QUALITY of the business; it says nothing about timing or about the price it trades at today.
There are very few comparable companies in its sector and country (13), so these percentiles were measured against its whole sector (298 companies).
Market
Reported results · figures in USD
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 · full year | 88.7B | 6.8B | 7.7% |
| 2024-12-31 · full year | 86.0B | 5.8B | 6.8% |
| 2023-12-31 · full year | 78.1B | 4.4B | 5.6% |
| 2022-12-31 · full year | 44.8B | 4.0B | 8.9% |
Analysts — latest moves
No target is still valid: all are more than 12 months old, which is the horizon analysts publish for.
| Date | Firm | What they did | Target | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-09-20 ·expired | Bankhaus Lampe | Downgrades | — | — |
The target used above (609.76) comes from the data provider's aggregate and is backed by 12 analysts, captured on 2026-09-09: it is weighted accordingly, not as a consensus.
Insiders — what they do with their own shares
Selling is routine: a good part of their pay comes in shares. Buying is what is informative, because nobody puts their own money into something they expect to fall.