This describes what public data says, together with each source's track record. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, nor financial advice. Investing can lose you money.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc
REFI
That trajectory is not the distance to the price target: it blends these sources, each weighted by how often it is right on this stock. earnings estimates +36.4% (is right 81% over a sample of 19 cases; it is the only source, so it carries the whole move) .
Expected return +36% (~12m) with 60% confidence, low volatility · insiders buying (informative signal), US leading indicator accelerating (CLI 100.8, +0.6/6m) — growth ahead, US 10y rate elevated (99p): headwind for the sector (with rebound potential), institutions accumulating, technical timing D1: confluence 0.0 (percentile 25) → -2.0, risk-on market — affects position size, not the ranking, out-of-sample post-mortem -1.7% (450 cases).
How much can you trust each source on REFI.US?
Not every source is equally accurate, and none is equally accurate on every stock. This is how often each one GOT IT RIGHT, measured against what actually happened afterwards. The line marks 50%, and it is only a visual reference. For these four sources we have not measured how often chance alone would get it right, and for some of them —such as targets reached— it would not be 50%. Where it is measured is in the technical signals further down, which carry their base rate alongside.
How much it moves
The price trades BELOW the target: punished against its anchor of value, with a possible upward correction — EXTREME DEVIATION: suspect a value trap (the target has not been cut yet). Analyst price target: 16.00 (1 firm).
The environment · is working neutral
No stock moves alone. This is what is happening around REFI.US and how much it weighs: the environment subtracts 0.1 points out of the 7 it can move.
Is there fear in the market?
How is the US economy doing?
In United States: leading indicator for United States accelerating (CLI 100.8, +0.6/6m) — growth ahead.
What is pulling and what is dragging?
How much each thing this company depends on has moved in recent months.
Interest rates (US 10-year Treasury): this stock tends to suffer when rates rise (correlation -0.10), and right now they are rising.
Earnings
See the 16 previous reports
| Date | Expected | Reported | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 0.45 | 0.34 | -24.8% | missed |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.44 | 0.23 | -47.7% | missed |
| 2026-03-12 | 0.40 | 0.38 | -5.6% | missed |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.46 | 0.42 | -8.7% | missed |
| 2025-08-07 | 0.47 | 0.41 | -12.8% | missed |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.44 | 0.47 | +6.8% | beat |
| 2025-03-12 | 0.56 | 0.39 | -30.4% | missed |
| 2024-11-07 | 0.51 | 0.56 | +9.8% | beat |
| 2024-08-07 | 0.54 | 0.46 | -14.0% | missed |
| 2024-05-07 | 0.56 | 0.47 | -16.3% | missed |
| 2024-03-12 | 0.49 | 0.51 | +3.7% | beat |
| 2023-11-08 | 0.53 | 0.54 | +2.3% | beat |
| 2023-08-09 | 0.54 | 0.47 | -12.6% | missed |
| 2023-05-09 | 0.51 | 0.60 | +17.6% | beat |
| 2023-03-09 | 0.48 | 0.40 | -17.1% | missed |
| 2022-11-09 | 0.48 | 0.55 | +13.6% | beat |
Technical signals that work best here
Each signal has been measured on this specific stock: how often, after it fired, the price moved as expected. The grey bar is what would have happened without the signal.They are ordered by EDGE - the hit rate divided by the base rate - not by the hit rate alone: a signal right 60% of the time where the norm is 40% adds more than one right 70% of the time where the norm was already 68%. When the rounded edge ties, the unrounded figure decides.
An edge of a few points over the base is real but small, and it is measured on the past: it guarantees nothing. Look at how many times it happened too - a high percentage over 30 cases says far less than a modest one over 500.
The last twelve months
The dots mark when the triggers measured for this stock fired (RSI oversold, MFI oversold, Price touches the lower Bollinger band): 57 times in the year (twelve are drawn, spread out, so you can see where they cluster). They anticipate a move over FIVE days, not a year: this is not a buy signal nor a forecast of what the price will do over twelve months.
See the 8 signals one by one
Of these 8 signals, 3 have their hit rate MEASURED on this stock; the rest carry a reference value that is the same for every company, which is the best that can be said without a history of its own. The «Right» column tells them apart.
Below 8 cases it does not count as measured and the signal carries no weight: 100% out of three and 0% out of three are the same noise. Between that minimum and 25 cases the weight phases in gradually, not all at once.
| Signal | Says | Accuracy | How it is used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals | flat | 54% → 51.3% adjusted measured here · 38 |
Adds nothing: its edge is too small to move the result |
| Analysts (price direction)getting the direction right is not reaching the target | up | 57% → 51.8% adjusted measured here · 21 |
It counts |
| Analysts (earnings) | up | 60% reference |
It counts |
| Analysts (revenue) | up | 57% reference |
It counts |
| Insiders (buying) | flat | 11% measured here · 9 small sample |
Adds nothing: it is right less than half the time |
| Macro environment | down | 52% reference |
It counts |
| EPS revisions | flat | 58% reference |
Adds nothing: its edge is too small to move the result |
| Institutional (flow) | up | 60% reference |
It counts |
Fundamental analysis in detail — debt, margins, earnings
Profile against its peers
Each pillar is a percentile within its peer group (same sector and country): 70 means it beats 70% of its comparables. It measures the QUALITY of the business; it says nothing about timing or about the price it trades at today.
Market
Reported results · 9 periods filed with the regulator · figures in USD
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 · quarter | 12.9M | 4.8M | 37.5% |
| 2025-12-31 · full year | 55.6M | 36.0M | 64.8% |
| 2025-12-31 · quarter | 14.2M | 8.2M | 57.3% |
| 2025-09-30 · quarter | 13.7M | 8.9M | 65.3% |
| 2025-06-30 · quarter | 14.6M | 8.9M | 60.8% |
| 2025-03-31 · quarter | 13.0M | 10.0M | 77.0% |
| 2024-12-31 · full year | 54.8M | 37.0M | 67.6% |
| 2023-12-31 · full year | 57.3M | 38.7M | 67.5% |
| 2022-12-31 · full year | 48.9M | 32.3M | 66.1% |
Analysts — latest moves
Consensus RECONSTRUCTED from targets still alive (under 12 months), one per firm: 16.00 median, between 16.00 and 16.00 — 1 firm, counting only the latest target from each.
| Date | Firm | What they did | Target | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Citizens | Maintains | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| 2025-03-17 ·expired | Citizens Capital Marke | Reiterates | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| 2024-12-19 ·expired | JMP Securities | Reiterates | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| 2024-12-17 ·expired | Alliance Global Partne | Initiates coverage | 20.00 | — |
| 2024-12-09 ·expired | Zuanic & Associates | Maintains | — | — |
| 2024-04-11 ·expired | Zuanic & Associates | Initiates coverage | — | — |
| 2024-03-13 ·expired | JMP Securities | Reiterates | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| 2023-12-05 ·expired | Zuanic & Associates | Initiates coverage | — | — |
| 2023-09-05 ·expired | Compass Point | Downgrades | 16.00 | — |
| 2023-09-01 ·expired | Piper Sandler | Initiates coverage | 16.00 | — |
| 2023-08-15 ·expired | JMP Securities | Reiterates | 20.00 | — |
| 2023-05-17 ·expired | Compass Point | Maintains | 16.00 | 15.00 |
Insiders — what they do with their own shares
Selling is routine: a good part of their pay comes in shares. Buying is what is informative, because nobody puts their own money into something they expect to fall.