This describes what public data says, together with each source's track record. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, nor financial advice. Investing can lose you money.
Ardmore Shipping Corporation
ASC
That trajectory is not the distance to the price target: it blends these sources, each weighted by how often it is right on this stock.
earnings estimates
-56.5%
(is right 90%
over a sample of 24 cases;
it is the only source, so it carries the whole move)
.
The expected-earnings contribution reached
-71.8% and has been capped at
-56.5%: a jump like that usually comes from a depressed base rather than from the price being about to move as much.
Expected return -57% (~12m) with 63% confidence, medium volatility · insiders selling (routine, little signal), copper elevated (99p): headwind for the sector (with rebound potential), institutions accumulating, technical timing D1: confluence 0.75 (percentile 92) → +3.4, risk-on market — affects position size, not the ranking, out-of-sample post-mortem -1.7% (450 cases).
How much can you trust each source on ASC.US?
Not every source is equally accurate, and none is equally accurate on every stock. This is how often each one GOT IT RIGHT, measured against what actually happened afterwards. The line marks 50%, and it is only a visual reference. For these four sources we have not measured how often chance alone would get it right, and for some of them —such as targets reached— it would not be 50%. Where it is measured is in the technical signals further down, which carry their base rate alongside.
How much it moves
The price trades ABOVE the last target on record from analysts: either the move has already happened, or that target has fallen behind. Analyst price target: 17.00 (2 firms).
The environment · is working in its favour
No stock moves alone. This is what is happening around ASC.US and how much it weighs: the environment adds 0.3 points out of the 7 it can move.
Is there fear in the market?
How is the US economy doing?
What is pulling and what is dragging?
How much each thing this company depends on has moved in recent months.
We have no stock index for Bermuda to measure how that market has moved, so its country does not enter this breakdown. The country's economic indicators are used, and they appear further down.
Earnings
See the 16 previous reports
| Date | Expected | Reported | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 1.11 | 1.18 | +6.8% | beat |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.54 | 0.58 | +8.4% | beat |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.27 | 0.28 | +3.7% | beat |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.27 | 0.31 | +14.8% | beat |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.18 | 0.22 | +20.0% | beat |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.13 | 0.14 | +12.0% | beat |
| 2025-02-13 | 0.21 | 0.25 | +20.5% | beat |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.55 | 0.55 | +0.4% | in line |
| 2024-07-31 | 1.06 | 1.13 | +6.4% | beat |
| 2024-05-08 | 0.86 | 0.92 | +6.7% | beat |
| 2024-02-15 | 0.61 | 0.63 | +3.6% | beat |
| 2023-11-07 | 0.44 | 0.49 | +10.7% | beat |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.56 | 0.57 | +2.7% | beat |
| 2023-05-09 | 1.00 | 1.04 | +3.6% | beat |
| 2023-02-14 | 1.29 | 1.28 | -0.5% | missed |
| 2022-11-02 | 1.43 | 1.54 | +7.4% | beat |
Technical signals that work best here
Each signal has been measured on this specific stock: how often, after it fired, the price moved as expected. The grey bar is what would have happened without the signal.They are ordered by EDGE - the hit rate divided by the base rate - not by the hit rate alone: a signal right 60% of the time where the norm is 40% adds more than one right 70% of the time where the norm was already 68%. When the rounded edge ties, the unrounded figure decides.
An edge of a few points over the base is real but small, and it is measured on the past: it guarantees nothing. Look at how many times it happened too - a high percentage over 30 cases says far less than a modest one over 500.
The last twelve months
The dots mark when the triggers measured for this stock fired (MACD bullish crossover, Price closes above VWAP, Price closes above the Hull average): 170 times in the year (twelve are drawn, spread out, so you can see where they cluster). They anticipate a move over FIVE days, not a year: this is not a buy signal nor a forecast of what the price will do over twelve months.
See the 11 signals one by one
Of these 11 signals, 2 have their hit rate MEASURED on this stock; the rest carry a reference value that is the same for every company, which is the best that can be said without a history of its own. The «Right» column tells them apart.
Below 8 cases it does not count as measured and the signal carries no weight: 100% out of three and 0% out of three are the same noise. Between that minimum and 25 cases the weight phases in gradually, not all at once.
| Signal | Says | Accuracy | How it is used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals | flat | 58% → 52.6% adjusted measured here · 38 |
Adds nothing: its edge is too small to move the result |
| Analysts (price direction)getting the direction right is not reaching the target | down | 37% measured here · 49 |
It fails so often it reads BACKWARDS: right 63% when inverted |
| Analysts (earnings) | down | 60% reference |
It counts |
| Analysts (revenue) | down | 57% reference |
It counts |
| Insiders (selling) | flat | 50% reference |
Adds nothing: its edge is too small to move the result |
| Macro environment | down | 53% reference |
It counts |
| EPS revisions | flat | 58% reference |
Adds nothing: its edge is too small to move the result |
| Relative strength | up | 56% reference |
It counts |
| Options (put/call) | up | 55% reference |
It counts |
| Growth vs index | down | 56% reference |
It counts |
| Institutional (flow) | up | 60% reference |
It counts |
Fundamental analysis in detail — debt, margins, earnings
Profile against its peers
Each pillar is a percentile within its peer group (same sector and country): 70 means it beats 70% of its comparables. It measures the QUALITY of the business; it says nothing about timing or about the price it trades at today.
Market
Reported results · 9 periods filed with the regulator · figures in USD
| Period | Revenue | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 · quarter | 116.2M | 60.5M | 52.1% |
| 2026-03-31 · quarter | 87.9M | 23.6M | 26.8% |
| 2025-12-31 · full year | 310.2M | 41.0M | 13.2% |
| 2025-12-31 · quarter | 82.9M | 12.4M | 14.9% |
| 2025-09-30 · quarter | 81.2M | 12.8M | 15.7% |
| 2025-06-30 · quarter | 72.0M | 9.6M | 13.3% |
| 2024-12-31 · full year | 405.8M | 133.0M | 32.8% |
| 2023-12-31 · full year | 396.0M | 116.8M | 29.5% |
| 2022-12-31 · full year | 445.7M | 138.5M | 31.1% |
Analysts — latest moves
Consensus RECONSTRUCTED from targets still alive (under 12 months), one per firm: 17.00 median, between 15.00 and 19.00 — 2 firms, counting only the latest target from each (leaving out 1 earlier revision).
| Date | Firm | What they did | Target | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| 2025-11-05 | Jefferies | Maintains | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| 2025-10-28 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| 2025-07-30 ·expired | Jefferies | Maintains | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| 2025-04-22 ·expired | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| 2025-02-14 ·expired | Stifel | Maintains | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| 2025-02-13 ·expired | Jefferies | Maintains | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| 2024-11-14 ·expired | Jefferies | Maintains | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| 2024-10-23 ·expired | Stifel | Downgrades | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| 2024-07-31 ·expired | Jefferies | Maintains | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| 2024-07-24 ·expired | Stifel | Maintains | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| 2024-07-23 ·expired | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | 26.00 | 25.00 |
Insiders — what they do with their own shares
Selling is routine: a good part of their pay comes in shares. Buying is what is informative, because nobody puts their own money into something they expect to fall.
When price drifts from the target, who gives way?
| Situation | Times | Price gave way | Analyst gave way | Move | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price above target | 4 | 75% | 25% | 6.3% | 28 |
A gap to the target closes in two ways and only one of them can be traded: the price moves towards the target, or the analyst moves the target towards the price. They are measured separately.